Should a story, by and large, be predictable? Like should the audience more or less know what direction the story is going in, or should the story be more plot twisty and unpredictable?
That’s a complicated question. In general, audiences like surprises, but it’s not as simple as assuming that more twists and turns are better.
How predictable a story should be depends on several factors:
- What exactly is the audience predicting? If the audience is sure the hero will save the day, that won’t spoil much. Even discounting how most stories end that way anyhow, there’s a lot of room within that to do unpredictable things. So if they know the general direction your story is going in, it won’t hurt anything. Whereas if what they’re predicting is a specific answer to an important mystery, that’s not so good. The pull of the mystery depends on uncertainty, and so an obvious answer is dissatisfying. Keep in mind though, that there’s a difference between an obvious answer to a mystery and one an audience member has figured out. People can get satisfaction from figuring things out, too.
- How invested is the audience in the outcome they are predicting? If the audience is invested enough in a particular outcome, it won’t really matter how predictable it is; they’ll just want to see it happen. Romances are the most common example, but audiences will often feel the same about the hero saving the day or other events that are emotionally satisfying.
- What are the costs of staying unpredictable? The problem with twists is that they are difficult to write well. A twist that feels contrived, creates plot holes, or reduces emotional satisfaction is worse than no twist. And in some cases, the story can’t stay unpredictable without sacrificing satisfaction at the end. This is common with popular TV shows – it’s simply impossible to foreshadow sufficiently but also keep the internet hive mind from catching on. Game of Thrones would have actually done better if they’d just chosen a character that everyone knew was likely to end up on the Iron Throne.
- Does knowing what’s coming raise tension or offer other benefits? If your protagonist knows they’ll have to fight a villain that out-matches them, like Harry Potter does with Voldemort, that will raise tension in the story and help keep it entertaining. For this reason, knowing that bad things are coming down the pipe can be a valuable storytelling tool. Even when something isn’t bad, knowing the general direction of the story can give it a sense of momentum that helps readers stick to it.
Twists add novelty to a story, but they aren’t the only thing to consider, not by a long shot. And for any writer who’s still learning to put together a solid plot, I would recommend against lots of twists because they can go wrong in so many ways.
Whatever you do, best wishes!