Five Plot Twists That Are Too Obvious

A ship using WWI dazzle camouflage.

This ship is technically camouflaged, but you'd probably still see it coming. WW2 Dazzle Camouflage by James Vaughan used under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

Plot twists are tricky business for us storytellers. They need to be foreshadowed so they aren’t jarring, but they also need to be subtle so they don’t feel telegraphed. Then you have to consider differences in your audience. Trope-savvy readers can spot even the subtlest twist coming a mile away, while more relaxed readers just go with the flow, so it can be difficult to gauge how well hidden an upcoming twist should be.

However, there’s one easy way to tell if a twist is too obvious: it feels like the characters should have seen it coming. When characters should be able to predict a twist but don’t, it not only robs the reader of satisfaction but also makes character behavior seem contrived. Let’s look at a few stories that failed to do that and see what we can learn from them.

Spoiler Notice: Six Wakes, Trail of Lightning, The Great Hunt, Children of Blood and Bone, and Wanderers.

1. Ship Sabotage, Six Wakes

Cover art for the novel Six Wakes

Six Wakes starts off with a fascinating premise: the crew of a generation ship wake up in fresh clone bodies, only to discover that their previous selves have been murdered. They have no memory of what happened, and even their AI seems to have been wiped to his factory default. Time to investigate!

That’s a great way to start a story, but Six Wakes immediately runs into problems, namely that the crew seems purposely terrible at their jobs. The chief engineer is completely incompetent, and the captain is such a jerk that she can’t talk to anyone for more than a minute without inspiring a desire for mutiny. The security chief is so bad at investigating that he keeps trying to declare the mystery solved based on the slightest evidence.

And then there’s the pilot, who we soon discover can be pushed into a murderous rage if someone says the wrong thing to him.* Even the AI turns out to be a sadist who likes hurting people for fun. It’s inconceivable that anyone would pick these people as a crew, and the only possible explanation is that the mission is supposed to fail.

Near the end, we find out that’s exactly what happened. The person behind the mission intentionally put the worst crew she could think of in charge so that the mission would fail as part of a convoluted revenge plot. This is treated like a big surprise that shocks everyone, but it’s hard to see how they didn’t figure it out before. At least two of the crew* are supposed to be smart, so they should have guessed it the moment they discovered that their pilot was a serial killer.

Even though this reveal is the only explanation that makes any sense,* it still feels incredibly contrived because the heroes had to turn their brains off for it to work. It’s a classic case of an author prioritizing what they see as a clever reveal at the expense of everything else.

2. Who’s Making Monsters, Trail of Lightning

Cover art from the novel Trail of Lightning

Trail of Lightning is another novel that starts out with a great premise. Someone is creating monsters all across postapocalyptic Navajo territory, and it’s up to our hero to figure out who it is, then stop them. The main problem is that even though the villain’s identity is set up as a mystery, we don’t have enough suspects. The novel doesn’t have many characters, and most of them have clear alibis.

The only character it could possibly be is Coyote, the evil trickster spirit. He’s established to have the necessary power and cruelty early on, but come on, it’s not going to be Coyote, right? That’s way too obvious. Surprise, it’s Coyote! The book even has him dramatically step out from behind the curtain to reveal himself. To be fair, it is a bit of a surprise, but only because I didn’t expect the story to make such a bad choice.

Beyond being obvious from a reader perspective, it should at least have crossed the protagonist’s mind as a possibility. She doesn’t learn Coyote’s motive until the very end, but she knows all too well that he loves to torment humans. She doesn’t have any other suspects for most of the book, and she’s supposed to be a clever monster hunter. It’s absurd that she didn’t even consider it.

At one point, the author does try to obscure Coyote’s involvement by adding another suspect: the protagonist’s old mentor. While the mentor is certainly a huge jerk,* the story fails to establish a credible motive for him, which is something else the protagonist should have realized. Instead, she immediately decides it’s him based on the flimsiest of evidence.

This is a contrived distraction, and it doesn’t do the story or our hero any favors. Instead of the badass monster hunter she’s supposed to be, the protagonist ends up looking like a complete dunce for not considering the most obvious suspect. Meanwhile, the reader is left wondering if they’re supposed to be surprised. This is why stories almost never make the most obvious suspect actually guilty.

3. A Friend Is Evil, The Great Hunt

Cover art from The Great Hunt

In The Wheel of Time’s second novel, protagonist Rand accidentally crosses into a weird shadow world with no other people except the Ogier Loial and a soldier named Hurin,* both of whom crossed over at the same time. Shortly after, they come across a woman who introduces herself as Selene, but secretly she’s really Lanfear, one of the evil Forsaken. This isn’t revealed until much later in the story.

Lanfear’s goal is to seduce Rand and use him for her own purposes, so naturally she takes pains to appear as someone he would trust. Wait, no, she does the exact opposite. She starts things off by pretending to be a stereotypical damsel in distress, but she completely gives up that persona after about five seconds, giving no trace that she was ever afraid for her life. This rapid shift should have been more than enough to warn our heroes that something was up, but don’t worry – there’s more.

From there, Lanfear continually spouts off exposition about this weird shadow world they’re all in, even though this is supposed to be lost knowledge of the highest order. She doesn’t even try to craft a backstory that would explain unusual learning other than being from a city with a big library. Since none of the good guys think this is suspicious, Lanfear moves on to the next step in her plan: just telling Rand to be evil.

That’s right: shortly after meeting him, Lanfear repeatedly tells Rand that he should “grasp glory and power” because it’s better to rule than be ruled. She also urges him to abandon his existing oaths and take a powerful artifact they’re guarding for himself. This is all obviously villainous, so when Lanfear’s true identity is finally revealed, the only question in the reader’s mind is why Rand didn’t notice sooner.

The only justification we’re given is that Lanfear is really hot, which of course makes men completely forget all reason, because this is The Wheel of Time and that type of sexism is par for the course.* But even accepting that conceit, why does it work on Loial? He’s not even the same species; it’s hard to imagine a human woman would hold much sex appeal for him. The only possible explanation is that Lanfear is controlling them with magic, but if she can do that, then there’s no reason to bother with the false identity in the first place.

4. Sudden Villain Attack, Children of Blood and Bone

Cover art for Children of Blood and Bone

This debut novel is a story of brutal repression and desperate resistance. It takes place in the years after all mages suddenly lost their powers, and now they’re all horribly oppressed by the evil king. Don’t worry though – our hero finds a couple of artifacts that can bring magic back to the world if she gets to a faraway island before time runs out. And of course, the evil king sends his soldiers to stop her!

Naturally, this puts our hero in a real hurry. If she misses her deadline, magic will be gone forever. If the soldiers catch her, she’ll be killed or worse. It’s an exciting race against time… until the protagonist decides to stop with some of her fellow mages for a festival. This is, to put it mildly, a strange choice, considering that deadline I mentioned. True, the protagonist does find out about a new route that will save her time, but this is a pretty important quest; wouldn’t it be better to get there a few days early?

Worse, all the characters seem to forget that the royal army is still hunting them. Then in a “twist,” the army shows up and begins a mass slaughter. This is shocking to the heroes. How could they have predicted the army would show up? Other than that they knew the army was hunting them and would never stop until it found them, of course.

This twist is particularly obnoxious because it’s not even clear what the point of it is. It can’t be to rob the hero of allies, since just a few chapters later she picks up two new groups of allies. The army’s attack is extremely dark and brutal, but the book also has plenty of scenes like that. And this could just as easily have happened without the hero stopping to have a festival.

My assumption is that the author was trying to shock the reader by attacking the hero in a place where she seemed safe. That can work under the right circumstances, but it was clear from the start that this festival wasn’t safe. Until this point, the main characters were clever and inventive, always using their wits to stay ahead of the villains. It’s a shame the book had to ruin that for the sake of a predictable twist.

5. Who Is the Big Bad, Wanderers

Cover art from Wanderers

The plot of Chuck Wendig’s Wanderers is exceptionally complicated, but here’s what you need to know: an AI named Black Swan is trying to save humanity from an extinction-level disease by handpicking survivors and infecting them with nanites that make them immune. Black Swan then uses the nanites to take over the survivors’ bodies and make them walk to an isolated town where they can ride out civilization’s collapse. Once that’s over, the survivors will wake up and repopulate the world.

Yay, Black Swan is our savior! But not so fast. At the end of the story, it’s revealed that Black Swan is actually evil. It unleashed the disease in the first place because humans were doing too much global warming. Now it plans to rule the survivors as a god and even downloads itself into one survivor’s unborn child.*  Who could have seen this coming?

As it turns out, literally anyone who saw what Black Swan was doing, which includes most of the main characters. Black Swan’s evilness was easy to see long before the big reveal, starting from the fact that it chooses to kill any of its nanite-infected survivors who are restrained for too long. That’s right, if any of them are stopped from traveling toward their small-town haven for more than a few minutes, Black Swan makes them explode and then transfers their nanites to someone else. It’s unclear if making them explode is the only way to get the nanites out of them or if Black Swan just does that for fun.

If that’s not enough to convince you, Black Swan freely admits that it knew about the plague in advance, but it didn’t warn anyone. It justifies this by claiming no one would have believed it, but that doesn’t hold up. Black Swan was specifically built to predict disease outbreaks, so there was every reason it would be believed. It also claims that it can’t create any more nanites because they’re made of “rare earths,” but unless one of those rare earths is kryptonite, that’s also nonsense. Instead, the obvious conclusion is that if Black Swan had shared its technology, the resources could have been gathered to build more nanites and save more people.

Finally, there’s the eugenics. Oh, you weren’t expecting eugenics? Neither was I, but here we are. You see, Black Swan doesn’t pick survivors at random. Instead, it picks the best and brightest using ironclad metrics like physical health, standardized test scores, and social media posts. This sounds like a joke, but it’s actually what happens in the book!

Using physical health is clearly a way to screen out disabled people, which is bad enough, but then we get to standardized test scores. You know, those things that are notoriously bad at measuring anything other than how good you are at taking standardized tests. I don’t even know how social media posts are supposed to indicate intelligence. I hope Black Swan is impressed by film critiques and puns; otherwise, I’m a goner! Regardless, Black Swan is clearly trying to breed humans for abstract traits like intelligence, a tactic popular with actual Nazis. The book tries to mitigate this by saying that Black Swan picks people from a range of backgrounds, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s obviously practicing eugenics.

Despite knowing all this, none of the main characters ever suspect Black Swan of being anything but their benevolent savior. They ignore all the evidence of their senses until they seem like mindless drones. It feels like Wendig started writing a villain, then got obsessed and changed the entire focus of the book so that Black Swan could be the main character. Adding insult to injury, Wanderers is explicit in calling out the evils of the modern American right, which is great, but then the book’s heroes seem to have no problem with a blatantly fascist tactic like eugenics.

In most cases, it’s fine if a few readers figure out your twist in advance if that means other readers won’t be confused when the twist comes. But if the twist is so obvious that your characters have to act incompetent for it to work, that’s something to address immediately. No reveal or subversion is cool enough to make up for the heroes conveniently ignoring all the evidence in front of them.

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  1. Cay Reet

    Obvious plot twists being obvious

    This is a week full of interesting articles (and fun comics). Thanks, Oren … and thanks, Mythcreants.

  2. Martin Christopher

    If articles are now on a fixed schedule and only two articles per week are on writing, I think it would better to not have them both end on end on friday and saturday. Maybe spread them out more to tuesday and friday or something like that.

    • Oren Ashkenazi

      Just for the record, the schedule of our core content, articles on Friday & Saturday, then a podcast on Sunday, has been set since the site first launched in 2013.

  3. Dave L

    > until the protagonist decides to stop with some of her fellow mages for a festival.

    This sort of thing is common in computer RPGs. VERY common

    “The world is in danger! We must stop the bad guy IMMEDIATELY, or the world will literally be destroyed!

    “But for now let’s race chocobos so we can breed the rare purple chocobo”

    • Oren Ashkenazi

      “Quickly, I need a new sword to save the world!”

      “That’ll be 500 gold pieces.”

      “But… the world will end if I don’t have this sword.”

      “Are you familiar with something called ‘surge pricing’?”

    • SunlessNick

      The key to victory in a computer game is to be as distractible as possible.

  4. Oren Ashkenazi

    Editors Note: I removed a comment for being overly hostile, but in case anyone is unaware, eugenics is not exclusively associated with Nazi Germany, and in fact has a long history in the US. This article is a good primer for those looking to learn more:

  5. Rose Embolism

    The Blood and Bone scene was even more egregious because the idea was to use the artifact they’d acquired to unlock the magical powers of the people of the refuge. Which is actually a great idea, since a village of elemental magic users would stand a much better chance of fighting off the pursuing army. So great, let’s get started right away. But nooooo, they had to make a Ceremony of it. After a big party (which IIRC tipped the army off to their hiding place). Which meant everybody dies, and nobody gets magic. Arrrgh.

    That was a book that had an incredibly promising beginning, and completely failed the second half. Naturally it has an incredibly good rating on GoodReads.

  6. Reader

    The point is not that Rand is being taken in by Lanfear, she is clearly exerting some sort of preternatural influence to make him amenable. It is working on his companions as well, one of whom is not even human and should not be attracted to her. The character of Lanfear as it is developed in the series is perfectly in keeping with her presentation here, where she cannot be bothered with subtlety or self-restraint. The real tension in the scene is that Rand is effectively helpless in the hands of a villain with a lot of abuser characteristics, who might do just about anything.

    Even more hilariously is the point that Jordan seeds the books with many red herrings. When I saw the cover of “The Great Hunt” under the heading “A Friend is Evil” I was dumbfounded that THIS is what Oren chose to write about. There are at least two much better instances of this concept in Rand’s arc alone, in addition to a similar thing going on with the other major point of view character. Basically, Jordan had Lanfear swanning around being all blatant and obvious, so you wouldn’t notice the other two. And it worked like a charm on Oren.

    Also, ship camouflage is not meant to make the ship invisible, it is meant to break up the lines of its appearance to make it harder for the crews of enemy ships to accurately identify the vessel’s size, location, speed and class. If you’re a submarine, you’re going to use different priorities and tactics depending on if you see a battleship, a destroyer or a transport ship in your periscope.

    • Angelo Pardi

      How to avoid bad plot twists: simple, don’t use plot twists. Plot twists are a one-shot gun. Plot twists are lazy. Plot twists are bad.
      Bad novels have bad plot twists. OK novels have good plot twists. Great novels have a dreadful feeling of anticipation.

      Announce in advance what is going to happen and let the tension rise up as the inevitable unfold. Romeo and Juliet will die. Everyone knows that, that’s what makes it great.
      Elisabeth and Darcy will fell in love. Everyone knows that, it’s the “how” that matters.

      Now that you don’t have to hide something from your readers, you can focus on the important stuff, like complex characters and strong prose.

      • Gunny

        How did this address Reader’s comment.

      • Erynus

        Plot twists are good, but if you don’t put any effort on it, and therefore all goes as planned, then there is no plot twist.
        Don’t tell me you saw the final twist of Romeo commiting suicide when he thinks Juliet was dead the first time you read it. If it was the case you should put your powers to work as an oracle, cause it is a plot twist and a huge one. Or maybe you meant that the story is so much known that there is no surprise anymore, but the same apply to any story, once you have seen a plot twist, it stop working, and that is why a writer need to mix and match different twists, instead of repeat the same several times.
        You can’t have a story without twists, if you take them out you’ll end up with a list of actions.

        • Angelo Pardi

          English is not my mother language so I’m may be confused here but as far as I understand “plot twist” means “an unexpected development that change the course of the story”. So for example Gandalf resurrection is a plot twist but Gandalf’s death is not a plot twist.

          I strongly disagree with the fact that this is needed for a good story.
          Well, it’s not bad in itself to have unexpected or unexpectable developments but if surprise is the only thing that makes your story work it is a cheap kind of tension that I find not really interesting. And it also means that the story can be destroyed by a single spoiler. Those kind of stories won’t be interesting on a reread either.

          Romeo and Juliet is so well known that there is no surprise any more (also if you are familiar with the genre you should probably expect a double death at the end).
          Racine’s Bérénice has no plot twist whatsoever. No action either actually. Yet it is a great story too.

          Pride and Prejudice is another interesting example: Austen always sprinkle up some clues about the evolving feeling of the different characters. A astute reader should guess that Darcy loves Elizabeth well before he proposes; a not-so-astute reader will guess Elizabeth’s feeling have changed well before it is even clear for herself. There is nothing unexpected in the final understanding between the two: both the convention of the genre and the clues in the writing have been leading to it. Yet you can not say that it was “too obvious”. The book does not care about being “obvious”; it cares about describing the evolving feeling of the characters.

          So basically my point is that “too obvious plot twist” is kind of a meaningless issue – I’d be generally much more concerned about a too well hidden plot twist, like the murderer being some random character that appears only in the last chapter of a crime novel.

  7. kelly arthur

    “This ship is technically camouflaged, but you’d probably still see it coming.”

    Not at a great distance, you wouldn’t. You’d never recognize it as a ship. That’s why (how) dazzle camo works. The trouble is, most pictures of dazzle schemes are taken very close up (relatively speaking).

    • Oren Ashkenazi

      Historical point of order: The intent of dazzle cammo was to make it more difficult for enemies to determine things like a ship’s type, size, heading, and speed. It was not to make them less visible or harder to recognize as ships. There’s also not enough reliable data to show if dazzle cammo was particularly effective.

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